In a virtual briefing on Friday, March 14, international logistics giant DHL revealed a study that predicts international trade will continue to grow in coming years and new growth leaders may emerge, despite the uncertainty caused by proposed tariff increases by US president Donald Trump.
“With all the happenings and challenges around the world and the geopolitical tensions dominating the headlines today, this latest edition of the DHL Trade Atlas could not have been introduced more timely.” stated Ken Lee, CEO of DHL Express Asia Pacific, during the briefing.
Lee added: “We hope that this report will help businesses, policy leaders, industry participants, and media to navigate the complexities of international trade.”
Growth despite uncertainty
The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 report’s foremost message was one of resilience. Assuming that only limited implementation of US’s threatened tariffs will occur, DHL’s report forecasts there will be a 3.1-percent annual global trade volume increase from 2024 to 2029, resulting in approximately 16 percent more trade in 2029 than in 2024.
This growth rate is higher than the preceding five year period, which was impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic and saw only a 2 percent annual global trade volume increase.
The report also considered the extreme case that a full implementation of Trump’s proposed tariffs would play out, which entails the US will implement a 45 percent additional tariff on goods from China and 15 percent on the rest of the world. Other nations would additionally retaliate with similar tariffs on US exports.
In this scenario, DHL estimates that world trade volumes would be cut by 7 to 10 percent, an amount that would significantly slow, but not reverse growth.
The report, however, argued the more likely outcome is the limited implementation of the US’s tariff increases due to negotiations between countries, exemptions on certain industries, and pressure from American consumers for lower inflation.
The report even hinted that unexpected international trade upswings resulting form technology advances such as e-commerce and artificial intelligence could help counter tariffs’ negative impacts.
Shifting trade patterns opens opportunities
The US tariffs and specifically, its increasing aggression towards China, is having ripple effects. Companies are continuing to diversify their supply chains and other nations and regions stand to benefit.
When predicting the top 30 nations considering both speed of trade growth and absolute trade volume growth over the next five years, DHL found that India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines could be part of these trade leaders.
DHL has high expectations regarding India’s trade growth due to recent, large commitments by foreign companies to invest in India’s manufacturing sector.
If DHL’s expectations for both absolute volume and speed manifest over the next five years, India will be the location of 6 percent of the world’s trade growth, behind only China and the US.
Southeast Asian nations Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines are also expected to benefit from countries expanding their supply chains outside of China.
Vietnam is predicted to rank 5th in terms of volume over the next five years and 29th in terms growth speed. One of the key factors in Vietnam’s trade growth is the nation becoming a favored destination for electronics manufacturing.
Similarly, DHL reported that Indonesia is emerging as a preferred destination for the metals and chemicals industries. The research forecasted that Indonesia will hold steady in 12th place on the scale rankings, while rising from 33rd to 25th in the speed rankings.
Unlike Indonesia, and Vietnam that have already seen investments, the Philippines has not yet received benefits from supply chain diversification. DHL, though, highlights the Philippines as a possible growth leader because of its possible growth acceleration.
While ranked only 129th in terms of growth speed over the 2019 to 2024 period, DHL estimates the Philippines will climb to 15th in terms of speed in 2024 to 2029. Regarding scale, the Philippines is forecasted to rise from 68th place to 30th.
During the briefing Steven Altman, senior research scholar at NYU Stern School of Business and director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management, explained the predicted rankings of the Philippines.
“There isn’t so much a specific catalyst for the [trade growth] acceleration for the Philippines, as much that there is the sense of substantial potential that hasn’t yet been tapped as part of that supply chain reorientation, the capabilities that exist, and the industries that can be served,” Altman said.
Taking a regional perspective, South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia are forecasted to achieve faster trade volume growth than all other regions from 2024 to 2029. Slower-growing Europe, however, is predicted to generate a larger share or 30 percent of the world’s total trade growth.
The DHL 2025 Trade Atlas analyzed trade patterns over nearly 200 countries and territories and was produced by DHL in partnership with the New York University’s Stern School of Business.
