Analyst firm IDC said in its latest forecast that the sold capacity from digital TV broadcast, consumer Internet access, and wholesale enterprise bandwidth will reach 335.6 Gbps in 2026 up from 127.2 Gbps in 2022, a CAGR (compounded annual growth rate) of 23.9%.
The main drivers of satellite broadband demand for capacity are both consumer Internet access and enterprise connectivity requirements. The largest consumer Internet demand will come from a number of markets in the region, including the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia.
Satellite connectivity will be used to substitute for terrestrial access in remote areas and other regions that are underserved by terrestrial fiber or fixed wireless access.
Enterprise satellite capacity demand will be driven by a number of use cases including emergency and disaster response and management, remote connectivity for townships, remote schools, private networks in mining, oil & gas, and agriculture, cellular backhaul for remote cell sites, aeromobility for commercial airliners, merchant shipping for cargo and Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) and private yachts.
“The emergence of large Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and mega-Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) constellations and next-generation Geosynchronous (GEO) Very High Throughput Satellites (VHTS) in Southeast Asia and Oceanic region will drive wholesale and consumer retail prices down further extending the price declines that began in 2015-2016,” said Bill Rojas, research director for IDC Asia-Pacific
“The wholesale price drops will further expand the number of use cases that will become feasible to include cellular base station backhaul, IoT gateways, satellite as a second broadband line, satellite for recreational vehicles and outdoor activities, and connectivity for yachts and private airplanes. Moreover, satellite operators launching new satellites are expected to utilize different frequencies in their payloads to serve different needs.”
In terms of the number of enterprise services in operation (SIOs), the number of SIOs will grow 10% from 29,370 in 2021 to 47,908 in 2026, a CAGR of 10.3%.
In terms of satellite bandwidth revenue from enterprises, IDC forecasts that the revenue will grow from $253.2 million to $427.1 million, a CAGR of 11.0%. Enterprise revenue will grow faster than the number of enterprise SIOs because the data usage per SIO will grow.
Another important trend is the market share split between different end-user device/terminals frequency bands, which include L-Band (1-2 GHz), S-Band (2-4 GHz), C-Band (4-8 GHz), Ku-Band (12-18 GHz), and Ka-Band (27-40 GHz). As can be seen in the figure above, sold capacity growth will be primarily in the Ku-Band (27.1%) and Ka-Band (24.1%).
The reason that Ku-band will grow several percentage points faster than Ka-Band is the planned supply of Ku-Band in the region, followed by the use of Ku-band for end-user terminals in some of the larger LEO constellations.
Over the forecast period, IDC said it expects that Ka-band will dominate space-to-gateway links, and potentially by the end of the forecast period the V-Band (40-75 GHz) will also be introduced by some LEO and GEO operators.
